Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.012031 0.013595 0.015287 0.017254 0.019477 0.021915 0.024790
2025-11-23 0.009374 0.011487 0.013966 0.017090 0.020924 0.025483 0.031323
2025-11-30 0.008139 0.010544 0.013526 0.017497 0.022657 0.029145 0.037944
2025-12-07 0.006899 0.009352 0.012532 0.016964 0.022994 0.030934 0.042217
2025-12-14 0.006045 0.008521 0.011859 0.016698 0.023551 0.032940 0.046837
2025-12-21 0.005293 0.007726 0.011122 0.016220 0.023703 0.034328 0.050638
2025-12-28 0.004975 0.007499 0.011136 0.016775 0.025332 0.037889 0.057825
2026-01-04 0.004640 0.007204 0.011010 0.017091 0.026605 0.040999 0.064576
2026-01-11 0.004370 0.006976 0.010954 0.017488 0.028009 0.044389 0.072021
2026-01-18 0.004015 0.006577 0.010590 0.017359 0.028555 0.046458 0.077504
2026-01-25 0.003726 0.006256 0.010317 0.017338 0.029255 0.048803 0.083601
2026-02-01 0.003421 0.005879 0.009918 0.017068 0.029502 0.050398 0.088537
2026-02-08 0.003229 0.005682 0.009807 0.017288 0.030619 0.053582 0.096566
2026-02-15 0.002991 0.005384 0.009503 0.017144 0.031089 0.055687 0.102875
2026-02-22 0.002866 0.005275 0.009512 0.017552 0.032569 0.059678 0.112940
2026-03-01 0.002610 0.004906 0.009027 0.017017 0.032268 0.060407 0.116955
2026-03-08 0.002419 0.004638 0.008704 0.016750 0.032437 0.062001 0.122728
2026-03-15 0.002217 0.004334 0.008289 0.016270 0.032152 0.062700 0.126788
2026-03-22 0.002163 0.004312 0.008404 0.016827 0.033934 0.067518 0.139485
2026-03-29 0.002084 0.004231 0.008400 0.017144 0.035258 0.071529 0.150861
2026-04-05 0.002018 0.004174 0.008435 0.017542 0.036774 0.076035 0.163647
2026-04-12 0.001901 0.004000 0.008223 0.017413 0.037179 0.078285 0.171800
2026-04-19 0.001804 0.003861 0.008071 0.017393 0.037811 0.081051 0.181295